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Thread: National Hunt Season 2011-2012

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    National Hunt Season 2011-2012

    Havent seen a thread up on this so I might as well start one.

    The big story from last weekend was Kauto Star winning the betfair chase. I must admit that I thought that he was in decline but that was proved to be wrong. He jumped well in the lead and held on. The plan for him is the King George on Stephens day and the gold cup. I cant see him winning either race to be honest. Long Run i think should be fitter at Kempton and I think that another horse might be put in the race as a spoiler to try and prevent Kauto from getting into a good rhythm in front.

    Also last weekend was Master Minded won at Ascot. He ran very poorly on his first run this season at Aintree which was blamed on a lack of fitness. He did good on Sat and beat a good horse in Somersby. The target at the start of the year was the King George and the Ryanair chase but I cant see Kauto Star and Master Minded running in the same race. Also I dont think that Master Minded will stay 3 miles even on a track with an easy 3 miles as Kempton. A horse to take from Saturday would be Dynaste who won the grade 3 hurdle at Haydock. Grand Crus won this last year and with both horses from the same yard I wonder are the Pipes planning the same route with Dynaste.

    The weekend before was the Cheltenham open meeting. On the Friday we had the chasing debut of the aforementioned Grands Crus who won despite making a bad mistake although his main rival Cue Card fell before the race got really serious.

    On the Saturday we had the Paddy Power chase won by Great Endevaour who won well despite a bad mistake at the last fence. He is been targeted at the Hennessy on this weekend. Two interesting winners on that day were the Paul Nicholls duo of Hinterland for the triumph and Join Together for the 4 miler at Cheltenham.

    On the Sunday we had the chasing debut of Al Ferof who won win. Brampour who won the Greatwood Handicap and Fingal Bay who looked like an absolute machine when winning at Chepstow in October. He wasnt as impressive this time although he should be a big player in the big races in the next few years .

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    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    Grand crus is 7/2 fav for the RSA. I know it's a long winter, but at the minute that's the stand out ante post for me.

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimdagym View Post
    Grand crus is 7/2 fav for the RSA. I know it's a long winter, but at the minute that's the stand out ante post for me.
    He is entered on Thursday at Newbury.

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    ruby getting off Kempes tomoro at cork to ride psycho for tony martin...follow the money there

    McCoy riding in England for Byrnes aswell. Short price, have a look at the double

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    Quote Originally Posted by saintly View Post
    ruby getting off Kempes tomoro at cork to ride psycho for tony martin
    He's not. Ruby hasn't ridden Kempes since McManus bought him. Casey is JP's retained rider in Ireland so he gets the ride, Ruby wouldn't have been offered it even though Kempes is a Mullins-trained horse. It doesn't look a very strong race but Psycho's record when switched back over hurdles in the past couple of years (hasn't won and has fallen/unseated a couple of times) makes that price way too short for me. Of course watch him go and win now!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimdagym View Post
    Grand crus is 7/2 fav for the RSA. I know it's a long winter, but at the minute that's the stand out ante post for me.
    All about opinions Jim but 7/2 for a race four months away is shocking antepost value for me. Mostly because you’d probably get more or less the same price on the morning of the race without incurring any of the risks of antepost punting. He didn't jump that well on his debut and was lucky not to fall after clattering one of them. He also needs some cut in the ground to be at his best and there’s no guarantee he’ll get that. The other major reason I’d have to oppose him is that he simply doesn’t fit the profile of the typical RSA winner (and I’ve had the winner of this race 3 years running). He’s a class horse but this generally goes to the toughest as opposed to the best - I’d be surprised if the winner of this isn’t Irish bred as opposed to French. First Lieutenant could win it if he can sharpen up his jumping. Shark Hanlon’s Hidden Cyclone and Fenton’s Last Instalment have the class to win it if they can handle the faster ground – Last Instalment has won two decent novice chases without making a single jumping error and has a real engine. Donald McCain thinks the world of Tornado Bob and Henderson’s Bobs Worth – bred to be a chaser - won the Albert Bartlett over Course & Distance (2010 RSA winner Weapons Amnesty had won the Albert Bartlett the previous year). That’s far too many contenders – without even considering the possibility of injury, loss of form etc - to be calling 7/2 for a race nearly four months away good value.

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    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    I didnt say it was a value bet Gaz, I said it was the stand out bet for me at the minute. I'm not a big fan of horseracing antepost at the best of times and at 7/2 for the festival I would normally stay clear. What I mean is that its the only one I am currently watching.
    With regards his chances, well he has recently won his chase debut on the track, albeit over 2m4f. He lost to Big bucks in the world hurdle by less thaan 2 lengths and that was with 11-10 on his back (so did Bucks) and he won over 3m on the track in another hurdle in Jan. So track and trip will be no problem. The RSA is a gruelling race though, and Pipe doesnt exactly have form in it. But Grand Crus has enough going for it to be in with a shout. Barring any disasters this winter, I'd expect it to be thereabouts. Having said that, Grand crus has never won carrying more than 11-5 so 'd be watching the weights too. I wouldnt take your arguement about the ground at chelt. Although Grand crus has only won good to soft or good (afair) but the same arguement is true that most horses need a general type of ground. Part of your antepost bet is that the gound suits, and good or ggod to soft wouldnt be an unnatural ground for march. Its not like he needs glue to win.
    The way I would treat this is if I saw him at a very short price in newbury this week or over christmas, I'd back him antepost instead, in that if he wins he'd be shortened for the festival anyway.


    But he is grey anyway so fuck him...

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimdagym View Post
    I didnt say it was a value bet Gaz, I said it was the stand out bet for me at the minute. I'm not a big fan of horseracing antepost at the best of times and at 7/2 for the festival I would normally stay clear. What I mean is that its the only one I am currently watching.
    With regards his chances, well he has recently won his chase debut on the track, albeit over 2m4f. He lost to Big bucks in the world hurdle by less thaan 2 lengths and that was with 11-10 on his back (so did Bucks) and he won over 3m on the track in another hurdle in Jan. So track and trip will be no problem. The RSA is a gruelling race though, and Pipe doesnt exactly have form in it. But Grand Crus has enough going for it to be in with a shout. Barring any disasters this winter, I'd expect it to be thereabouts. Having said that, Grand crus has never won carrying more than 11-5 so 'd be watching the weights too. I wouldnt take your arguement about the ground at chelt. Although Grand crus has only won good to soft or good (afair) but the same arguement is true that most horses need a general type of ground. Part of your antepost bet is that the gound suits, and good or ggod to soft wouldnt be an unnatural ground for march. Its not like he needs glue to win.
    The way I would treat this is if I saw him at a very short price in newbury this week or over christmas, I'd back him antepost instead, in that if he wins he'd be shortened for the festival anyway.


    But he is grey anyway so fuck him...
    Could easily be heading to the Gold Cup now instead of the RSA. Hope not tho.Novices have a poor record in it and the Pipes have seen the worst of running a novice in Gold Cup from what happened to Gloria Victus back in 2000. The Gold Cup seems like a 2 horse race between Long Run and Kauto Star now when Denman retiring and none of the other challengers looking up to much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    Could easily be heading to the Gold Cup now instead of the RSA. Hope not tho.Novices have a poor record in it and the Pipes have seen the worst of running a novice in Gold Cup from what happened to Gloria Victus back in 2000. The Gold Cup seems like a 2 horse race between Long Run and Kauto Star now when Denman retiring and none of the other challengers looking up to much.
    There's certainly nothing here going to win it (not unless it turns up like a gluepot which never really happens at Cheltenham in March). Backed Rubi Light in the Lexus and more so than being pissed off that Synchronised beat him, I felt totally embarrassed for the Irish Staying Chasers that a horse who's considered no more than a decent handicapper in Britain could come over and beat our best 3 milers off level weights on ground that wasn't his optimum. Couldn't back Long Run at 5/2 the way he clatters into so many fences - he's going to tip up one of these days. It must be said though that with another furlong he'd have reeled in Kauto at Kempton so I do reckon he'll reverse form with Kauto over the extra distance and more stamina sapping track at Cheltenham. It may well not seriously concern anything else but from a value perspective I backed Captain Chris at 20.0 (19/1) on Betfair. Although he was a distant third in the King George, he jumped well enough. The consensus was that he didn't really get the 3 miles but for me he's a Spring horse and we won't see the best of him until then so I was quite happy with his effort and think his price is too big.

    Rubi Light was a close-up third in the Ryanair last year on good ground and is a better horse now, so winning that wouldn't be beyond him. Thought Lynch had to ride him with too much restraint to get the three miles in the Lexus and doing so took away from what he does best - really go for his race from the front and force his opponents into mistakes. Lynch blamed the better ground for the Lexus defeat but that doesn't wash with me - any horse that can finish within a few lengths of Albertas Run on a good day over 2 and a half miles in the Spring around Cheltenham has no problem handling good going.
    Last edited by Gaz; 3rd January 2012 at 11:07 AM.

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Big days Racing in Newbury tomorrow with Long Run going in the Denman chase. Sprinter Sacre the Arkle favourite in the Game Spirit and Zarkander in the Betfair hurdle.

    If Zarkander is to be a threat to Hurricane Fly in the champion at Cheltenham then he has to run very well tomorrow. He is returning from a long absence but he is not top weight because Brampour is keeping his weight down. It also doesn't look like a particularly strong race.

    Neither does the Game Spirit. Sprinter Sacre is only a novice but he still should win this. French Opera and Im so Lucky are useful yardsticks so they should give us a decent guide on Sprinter Sacre.

    Long Run performance tomorrow should also be very important. There are some decent if questionable mentality horses in this race such as Tidal Bay and What a Friend. Having being beaten by Kauto Star the last twice Long Run needs to put in a good performance. Its also interesting to see Burton Port in the race. A good horse but not top class I wonder will he be a pacemaker tomorrow in perpartion for the gold cup so that there is a decent pace in the race. Also could be a trial run for that tactic for the gold cup.

    Also this week the Grand National weights were announced with Synchronised the top weight. Currently my hope would be that On His Own runs. I saw him win the Thyestes chase at Gowran a few weeks ago and he destroyed the others in the race. He looked very good and Mullins has used the Thyestes before as a trial for the Grand National with Hedgehunter. Also Hold on Julio is interesting he won very well at Sandown last time out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    Long Run performance tomorrow should also be very important. There are some decent if questionable mentality horses in this race such as Tidal Bay and What a Friend. Having being beaten by Kauto Star the last twice Long Run needs to put in a good performance. Its also interesting to see Burton Port in the race. A good horse but not top class I wonder will he be a pacemaker tomorrow in perpartion for the gold cup so that there is a decent pace in the race. Also could be a trial run for that tactic for the gold cup.
    I personally think Long Run should front run in the Gold Cup to stop Ruby dictating the pace of the race on Kauto (as happened in the Betfair and King George), so it'll be interesting to see if they try that today. As for today, I couldn't resist having a punt on Tiday Bay at 8/1, monkey and all though he is (as I always say with him, he's as likely to finish last as first).

    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    Also this week the Grand National weights were announced with Synchronised the top weight. Currently my hope would be that On His Own runs. I saw him win the Thyestes chase at Gowran a few weeks ago and he destroyed the others in the race. He looked very good and Mullins has used the Thyestes before as a trial for the Grand National with Hedgehunter. Also Hold on Julio is interesting he won very well at Sandown last time out.
    I reckon On His Own won the Thyestes far too easily to give himself any chance at Aintree. The handicapper here has put him up 18 lbs for that and the English Handicapper has slapped another 5 lbs on that for the National. That leaves him almost certainly exposed.

    I did actually manage to tip the National winner on here last year. I applied the criteria below to narrow out the field and then chose the one I thought most likely. These are based on the fact that the nature of the race has changed markedly in the last 3 years, with higher rated horses dominating.

    Rated 145 or higher (Last 3 winners and 6/6 of first and second in last 3 runnings)
    Has won over further than 3 miles off a rating of 140 or higher (Last 3 winners)
    Has won over 2m 5f or shorter (Last 4 winners)
    Aged 9 or 10 (Last 7 winners, 5/6 of 1-2 in last 3 runnings)
    Won on Good/Good to Soft Ground (Last 4 winners)

    Of the likely runners, these leave just Chicago Grey and Planet Of Sound. So there you have it, the rest can't win! Actually Synchronised, Weird Al and Midnight Chase also qualified but are likely to run in the Gold Cup instead.

    Of the pair, I prefer Planet Of Sound (currently 25/1 with Paddy Power and longer elsewhere). Chicago Grey is a hold up horse which I think would leave him far too much to do in a National unless a change of tactics is employed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    I personally think Long Run should front run in the Gold Cup to stop Ruby dictating the pace of the race on Kauto (as happened in the Betfair and King George), so it'll be interesting to see if they try that today. As for today, I couldn't resist having a punt on Tiday Bay at 8/1, monkey and all though he is (as I always say with him, he's as likely to finish last as first).
    And today it was the latter! Beaten a long way out. Long Run won but unimpressively so, his jumping was again very ragged.

    Sprinter Sacre was very impressive and Zarkandar stayed on very well to win.

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Cant see anything beating Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. He was very impressive.
    Long Run wasnt though. He was giving Burton Port 10pounds which might help him improve at Cheltenham. Still his jumping was scratchy and he didnt quicken to well when asked. Burton Port could be interesting each-way for the Gold Cup. That was his first run since November 2010 and he stayed on quite well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    Cant see anything beating Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. He was very impressive.
    There is a body of opinion in the sport (Noel Meade for one) that he's going to be one of the all-time greats. I backed him in the Supreme Novices' last year where he led over the last flight then definitely didn't get up the hill to fade back into third. He has obviously improved this season but that's still in the back of my mind with him. The other thing is that he clearly needs a strongly run race. If the others think he's nigh-on unbeatable we could get a tactical race which wouldn't suit him.

    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    Long Run wasnt though. He was giving Burton Port 10pounds which might help him improve at Cheltenham. Still his jumping was scratchy and he didnt quicken to well when asked. Burton Port could be interesting each-way for the Gold Cup. That was his first run since November 2010 and he stayed on quite well.
    Yeah, despite winning Paddy Power actually pushed his price out for the Gold Cup. He will not win the Gold Cup jumping like that. Burton Port now has the dreaded bounce factor to deal with but has always thrived on a test of stamina - I was practically praying he'd beat Long Run to embarrass Robert Waley-Cohen into putting a proper jockey on his horse instead of that spoiled twat he has for a son.

    Weather permitting, hoping to pay my first visit to Gowran tomorrow for Red Mills Day. That or Navan on Sunday.

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    Yeah, despite winning Paddy Power actually pushed his price out for the Gold Cup. He will not win the Gold Cup jumping like that. Burton Port now has the dreaded bounce factor to deal with but has always thrived on a test of stamina - I was practically praying he'd beat Long Run to embarrass Robert Waley-Cohen into putting a proper jockey on his horse instead of that spoiled twat he has for a son.

    Weather permitting, hoping to pay my first visit to Gowran tomorrow for Red Mills Day. That or Navan on Sunday.
    Hope you enjoy Gowran. Be warned it gets quite cold there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    Hope you enjoy Gowran. Be warned it gets quite cold there.
    Cheers - I've yet to visit a racecourse that doesn't!

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    Hope you enjoy Gowran. Be warned it gets quite cold there.
    And it was very cold there today. Decent days racing although apart from Rubi Light cant see the rest making much impact at Cheltenham or Punchestown. Zaidpour cantered in but it was a weak race. The 4-yo hurdle was won by a 40/1 shot but he won quite easily, Mullins horse in that race was very disappointing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kksaints View Post
    And it was very cold there today. Decent days racing although apart from Rubi Light cant see the rest making much impact at Cheltenham or Punchestown. Zaidpour cantered in but it was a weak race. The 4-yo hurdle was won by a 40/1 shot but he won quite easily, Mullins horse in that race was very disappointing.
    You're telling me! It started snowing at one stage. Had no winners but that didn't bother me, occupational hazard of the game. However, there used to be a regular poster on here called United (Drogs fan) who owned a share in a horse called Jack Absolute. While the inability of his fancies to win were the stuff of legend, he did actually give us wise word about this horse a couple of times. I've followed him ever since and won four or five times with him, making him one of my favourite horses in training. Yesterday was the first time I got to see him in the flesh, so I took a couple of snaps of him in the parade ring and heading out on the track. That said, him being a Limerick specialist and best over 2 and a half miles on bottomless ground, I decided not to let my heart rule my head and bet elsewhere. You can guess the rest - he pissed home in front of my eyes at 16/1 and me without a red cent on him. Felt twenty times worse than any loser I've ever had. Still, I have this lovely photo


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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    You're telling me! It started snowing at one stage. Had no winners but that didn't bother me, occupational hazard of the game. However, there used to be a regular poster on here called United (Drogs fan) who owned a share in a horse called Jack Absolute. While the inability of his fancies to win were the stuff of legend, he did actually give us wise word about this horse a couple of times. I've followed him ever since and won four or five times with him, making him one of my favourite horses in training. Yesterday was the first time I got to see him in the flesh, so I took a couple of snaps of him in the parade ring and heading out on the track. That said, him being a Limerick specialist and best over 2 and a half miles on bottomless ground, I decided not to let my heart rule my head and bet elsewhere. You can guess the rest - he pissed home in front of my eyes at 16/1 and me without a red cent on him. Felt twenty times worse than any loser I've ever had. Still, I have this lovely photo

    He pulled up early in a race on Thyestes day and that put me off him. Some decent priced winners there yesterday 12/1,16/1 and 40/1

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    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    I told you gaz. Greys will only break your heart!

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    i feel physically sick reading that Gaz.


    16/1 ouch

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    Kauto Star only 50/50 to run in the Gold Cup after a heavy fall while schooling at Ditcheat yesterday. I've actually already backed Long Run for this at 5/2 but hope Kauto makes it even if that lessens Long Run's chances of winning, for what Kauto had achieved this season he deserves to be in it.

    By the way I realise my stance on Long Run contradicts what I wrote about him immediately after his race at Newbury. But I watched that race again and his jumping errors weren't as serious as I thought at first, he was untidy at a few but lost very little momentum. He did actually break the course record that day while giving Burton Port 10lbs so I took the view that pushing his price out was an over reaction by the bookies and that it would come to be seen as such by the day of the race. Obviously Long Run is into top price of 7/4 now after the news about Kauto broke.

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    kauto fell last Friday. Some cover up to keep it quiet for a week. Apparently Nicholls is a little more bullish this morning on his chances of making it

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    Heard last night that he's almost certain to run - went out to 9/2 last night - Paddy Power offering 4/1 with a run.

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    Ricky O'Flaherty
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    There's certainly nothing here going to win it (not unless it turns up like a gluepot which never really happens at Cheltenham in March). Backed Rubi Light in the Lexus and more so than being pissed off that Synchronised beat him, I felt totally embarrassed for the Irish Staying Chasers that a horse who's considered no more than a decent handicapper in Britain could come over and beat our best 3 milers off level weights on ground that wasn't his optimum. Couldn't back Long Run at 5/2 the way he clatters into so many fences - he's going to tip up one of these days. It must be said though that with another furlong he'd have reeled in Kauto at Kempton so I do reckon he'll reverse form with Kauto over the extra distance and more stamina sapping track at Cheltenham. It may well not seriously concern anything else but from a value perspective I backed Captain Chris at 20.0 (19/1) on Betfair. Although he was a distant third in the King George, he jumped well enough. The consensus was that he didn't really get the 3 miles but for me he's a Spring horse and we won't see the best of him until then so I was quite happy with his effort and think his price is too big.

    Rubi Light was a close-up third in the Ryanair last year on good ground and is a better horse now, so winning that wouldn't be beyond him. Thought Lynch had to ride him with too much restraint to get the three miles in the Lexus and doing so took away from what he does best - really go for his race from the front and force his opponents into mistakes. Lynch blamed the better ground for the Lexus defeat but that doesn't wash with me - any horse that can finish within a few lengths of Albertas Run on a good day over 2 and a half miles in the Spring around Cheltenham has no problem handling good going.
    Didnt think we had seen a gold cup winner after the Lexus but we had. Must be seen as a poor Gold Cup.

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