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Thread: Value football bets.

  1. #541
    Administrator Slavia's Avatar
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    Done Kazakhstan, Russia (1st Half), Czech Rep., Ukraine (1st Half), Turkey (1st Half), Holland, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal, Belgium (Draw No Bet), Macedonia (Win/Draw), Ireland (Win/Draw)


    Can remember odds, but wasn't too bad overall

  2. #542
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    Pats 1.55 with Betfair (1/2) to beat Limerick. My advice with Pats would be to wait 20 minutes and price will drift out to 1.75 or so, then have a bet, as Pats (afaik) never seem to score early in matches
    Last edited by Saint DC; 7th September 2013 at 08:29 AM.

  3. #543
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint DC View Post
    Pats 1.55 with Betfair (1/2) to beat Limerick. My advice with Pats would be to wait 20 minutes and price will drift out to 1.75 or so, then have a bet, as Pats (afaik) never seem to score early in matches
    last five games our first goal time; 5, 39, 18, 20, 3

    So 4 of 5
    "We've seen you come, we'll see you go"

  4. #544
    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    last five games our first goal time; 5, 39, 18, 20, 3

    So 4 of 5
    Chuckle....
    There is no emoticon for what I am feeling.

  5. #545
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    last five games our first goal time; 5, 39, 18, 20, 3

    So 4 of 5
    Actually, your doing yourself there Dodge. The first goal scored in our recent matches have been 5,39,19,18,20,3 so it is 5 out of 6 and not 4 our of 5. However, as with all these things its about being selective, since if you take the previous 5 games to these, the first goal scored were in 55,84,16,79,62 minutes.

    Overall if you take all our goals scored in all competitive matches, from the first being Kenny Browne in 20th minute against Bangor Celtic on 25th Feb, to the last being Brennan's goal in 3rd minute against Derry, the average Saints first goal scored works out at the 38th minute!!!
    Last edited by Saint DC; 7th September 2013 at 08:42 AM.

  6. #546
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    I used leagues matches and I only used the last 5 because of this

    Pats (afaik) never seem to score early in matches
    "We've seen you come, we'll see you go"

  7. #547
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    I used leagues matches and I only used the last 5 because of this
    Alright, should have said 'on average',and using same logic nothing stopping me from using 5 matches before that. Also, goals are scored in all matches, not JUST league games

  8. #548
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    Calm down DC
    "We've seen you come, we'll see you go"

  9. #549
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    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    Calm down DC
    Was just delighted I could question ur stats cos you know ur stuff ha ha Hopefully we score 1st, then add another without reply, & I dont care if it's in the 1st or last min as long as we win tonite!

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  11. #550
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint DC View Post
    Was just delighted I could question ur stats cos you know ur stuff ha ha Hopefully we score 1st, then add another without reply, & I dont care if it's in the 1st or last min as long as we win tonite!
    Here here.
    After reading done random guy's round up of this weeks loi on balls.ie, I'm backing pats to win by 1 @ 23/10.
    There is no emoticon for what I am feeling.

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    Administrator Slavia's Avatar
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    Denmark, Georgia, Macedonia, Italy, Greece, Iceland @ 46/1

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    Anyone thinking Kerry are a good bet for Sam this year?
    5/1 second favs against a practically unbackable dublin at 4/6.
    There is no emoticon for what I am feeling.

  14. #553
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    Possibly for a place in the final as Mayo are on their side of the draw and they choke against Kerry every time but I think Donegal and Dublin from the other side of the draw will be in the final and I don't see Kerry beating either of those team. Cork aren't done yet either

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  16. #554
    John McDonnell
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    Banga are 9/1 to beat Sligo tonight or 7/2 to qualify

    Good prices considering Sligos euro record is woeful and with Jeff Henderson out Kalen Spillane will probably start centre half. Hes awful

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  18. #555
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimdagym View Post
    Anyone thinking Kerry are a good bet for Sam this year?
    5/1 second favs against a practically unbackable dublin at 4/6.
    Wu-hoo!!!!!!
    There is no emoticon for what I am feeling.

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  20. #556
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    Nice one Jim.
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  22. #557
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    Had a look at the Top 4 Premiership finish market there and reckon there's a bit of value to be had.

    Realistically, you'd have to think Man City, United and Arsenal will make the Top 4 (and likely the Top 3). The best odds available for the main contenders among the remainder are:

    Chelsea - 3/4
    Liverpool - 5/2
    Spurs - 11/2
    Everton - 12/1
    Southampton - 18/1
    Crystal Palace - 20/1
    66/1 bar

    I expect the likes of Leicester, Southampton and Palace to fall away, though I could see Palace making a better fist of it than the other pair. The fourth spot then will probably boil down to Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton.

    Chelsea are odds-on to make the Top 4 but that's based on a lot of assumptions for me, the biggest one being that Mourinho will stay for the season which I don't regard as any kind of certainty. Supposedly he had nothing to do with signing Pedro after he'd been after John Stones all summer, so if transfers are being done behind his back it'll probably end in tears. He was looking to strengthen in the right place to be fair to him, Ivanovic and Terry are suddenly looking past it.

    Liverpool may have Klopp now but they're lumbered with all the overpriced deadwood Rogers signed. Ings has just done his ACL too and will miss the rest of the season. They'll also have the burden and distraction of Europa League football.

    Spurs look solid but with Kane's loss of form the question of where their goals will come from has to be asked, the Korean lad they signed off Leverkusen is the only other registered striker at the club. They've also got the dubious pleasure of Thursday night trips to the likes of Azerbaijan to contend with.

    Everton have no European football to worry about which could prove critical. Having managed to fend off Chelsea's attempts to sign Stones, their hopes of having a good season probably rest on Lukaku continuing the sort of form in which he's started the season but if he can avoid injury there's a decent chance he may just do so. Hard to credit but he's still only 22 so is arguably only reaching maturity now. They've a solid and settled squad apart from him so I'd make the 12/1 available with Skybet well worth a punt.
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  23. #558
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post

    Everton have no European football to worry about which could prove critical. Having managed to fend off Chelsea's attempts to sign Stones, their hopes of having a good season probably rest on Lukaku continuing the sort of form in which he's started the season but if he can avoid injury there's a decent chance he may just do so. Hard to credit but he's still only 22 so is arguably only reaching maturity now. They've a solid and settled squad apart from him so I'd make the 12/1 available with Skybet well worth a punt.
    You haven't factored in Martinez being a complete spoofer, Everton won't get near the top 4.

    Spurs are Spurs so inevitably they'll be soft and fall apart.

    I agree with you on Chelsea

    Liverpool a decent bet, United could still end up struggling.
    And Brian Kerr is in tears.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rathfarnham_Saint View Post
    You haven't factored in Martinez being a complete spoofer, Everton won't get near the top 4.

    Spurs are Spurs so inevitably they'll be soft and fall apart.

    I agree with you on Chelsea

    Liverpool a decent bet, United could still end up struggling.
    Liverpool fan perchance? I'd want a hell of a lot better than 5/2 to go near them, they've looked so disjointed at times this season. No guarantee of Klippety Klopp putting them right either, he's as likely to be the new Juande Ramos as the new Arsene Wenger.

    That said I agree that neither United nor Arsenal are bulletproof for the Top 4, either one could fail to make it leaving two slots for the rest to fight out.

    If you genuinely think Liverpool are almost FIVE times more likely to make the Top 4 than Everton, then yeah, their 5/2 is a better bet than Everton's 12/1. Can't agree with you and I doubt many serious punters would either.
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  25. #560
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    Liverpool fan perchance? I'd want a hell of a lot better than 5/2 to go near them, they've looked so disjointed at times this season. No guarantee of Klippety Klopp putting them right either, he's as likely to be the new Juande Ramos as the new Arsene Wenger.

    That said I agree that neither United nor Arsenal are bulletproof for the Top 4, either one could fail to make it leaving two slots for the rest to fight out.

    If you genuinely think Liverpool are almost FIVE times more likely to make the Top 4 than Everton, then yeah, their 5/2 is a better bet than Everton's 12/1. Can't agree with you and I doubt many serious punters would either.
    I'm not a Liverpool fan at all but yes I give Everton absolutely no hope of getting into the top 4
    And Brian Kerr is in tears.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rathfarnham_Saint View Post
    I'm not a Liverpool fan at all but yes I give Everton absolutely no hope of getting into the top 4
    Fair enough. You know what they say about opinions! We'll see come May I suppose. Hope they at least go close to give me a bit of interest in the EPL beyond who wins it.
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  27. #562
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    Leicester are 3/1 to win at Anfield on Stephen's Day (or 2/1 Draw No Bet). What am I missing here, have they a rake of suspensions or have Vardy and Mahrez been arrested or something? Leicester are unbeaten away from home in the league (won 6, drawn 3), Liverpool have beaten only Villa, Swansea (both in the relegation zone) and Bournemouth at home in the league this season. They also have Skrtel definitely out and probably Mignolet too and while neither of them are rock solid, their replacements are worse. Whatever boost they got from the new manager factor has definitely subsided. Their ego and fans won't let them sit deep against Leicester which is probably the most effective way of curtailing the threat of the pace they have up front.

    Surely the bookies still aren't pricing this up on reputations?
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  28. #563
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    Reputation, and Asian money. Liverpool are nearly always way too short

    Klopp's record with Liverpool is w3 d3 l3. Rogers record was w3 d3 l2
    "We've seen you come, we'll see you go"

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    3/1 is a great price but I wouldn't get too excited about Leicesters away form, They've only played 2 of the current top 10 away, West Ham who have only won 2 games at home so far this season and Everton who are 10th.

    Draw at 11/4 is decent as well. Skrtel being out for Liverpool is probably a good thing for them
    And Brian Kerr is in tears.

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    West Ham at 10/3 at home to Southampton on the 28th seems a strange one to me too

  31. #566
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rathfarnham_Saint View Post
    3/1 is a great price but I wouldn't get too excited about Leicesters away form, They've only played 2 of the current top 10 away, West Ham who have only won 2 games at home so far this season and Everton who are 10th.
    True but at least they won both those games. I can't really be down on them for games they haven't played yet.

    Liverpool's poor home record is inspite of them playing only 2 teams from the Top 10 at Anfield this season (they lost both).

    Quote Originally Posted by Rathfarnham_Saint View Post
    Draw at 11/4 is decent as well. Skrtel being out for Liverpool is probably a good thing for them
    Agree he's ropey but a week ago Liverpool fans were saying that about Mignolet and looked how that worked out last Sunday (fouled or not, Bogdan was shocking for the first goal and shaky thereafter). They'll probably start Kolo Toure in his place on Saturday who has played a grand total of 2 minutes so far this season and has the pace of a tortoise on crutches these days. Sakho was supposedly rushed back early at Watford and isn't fully fit yet. Vardy and/or Mahrez have scored in every single league game for Leicester this season, I can't see that defence stopping them continuing that run. The deplorable Villa are the only team that haven't taken at least a point from Anfield this season once they scored.

    None of which guarantees anything of course but the key to successful gambling is to back selections at higher prices than they really ought to be and I don't think anyone that knows the first thing about punting would disagree that Leicester are way overpriced here. 2/1 Draw No Bet looks fucking mental to me.
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