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Thread: Bonds, Bail Outs, ECB, IMF. Bank Crisis, Job Losses

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    Bonds, Bail Outs, ECB, IMF. Bank Crisis, Job Losses

    Ok, so which is worse for Joe Public EU bail out, or our lot failing to sort country out? honest question btw

    Had a good thread on the old forum about banks and general
    crisis in the economy. So here we go again
    WWS - Remembered Always

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    Curtis Fleming tom the gom's Avatar
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    To be frank there is so much going on it is very hard to keep track of it all. I'll admit I'm not too up on the whole bonds, ecb and imf situation, anyone care to enlighten me?
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    Same here, that's why asking. Looking like the Germans are actually achieve what Hitler failed to do!
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    Had a very enlighting lecturer giving by Jim Power on the current economic climate last week, some startling facts too...
    Will post up tomorrow some things noted.....

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    Paul McGrath
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillyG View Post
    Ok, so which is worse for Joe Public EU bail out, or our lot failing to sort country out? honest question btw

    Had a good thread on the old forum about banks and general
    crisis in the economy. So here we go again
    Why are they the only two options, Billy G?

    How about:
    ~ renationalising - that is, without compensation - all the companies (Eircom, Aer Lingus, Aer Rianta, et al) that have been privatised/partially privatised in the last 15 years. This would provide the state with the means to alleviate many of our most pressing problems - unemployment not being least of them.
    ~ a retrospective tax on all the multi-nationals (Intel, Hewlett Packard, et al) who have made BILLIONS on the backs of Irish workers, only to send the profits elsewhere and royally f*** their workforce as soon as things began to look a bit iffy. This would be eminently fairer than taking money away from the sick, elderly, and young, which is what we are doing now, and what both the EU and IMF would insist we continue to do.
    ~ expropriating every last vestige of wealth held in the state by the O'Reillys, Desmonds, Kellys, O'Briens, Dunnes, and all the other gombeen men who without the slightest brain or brawn have drained the country of its riches for the past three decades.

    "All true Irishmen agree in what is to be done, but how to get it done is the question." (Secret Manifesto of the Society of United Irishmen, 1793.)

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    It's not a poll, so add in options you want. But argue them out and explain them. Some of those proposals would cause more problems than they would solve.

    Idea behind thread is so people who may know the ins and outs of things may be able to point people in right direction. To many commentators confusing the issue. For me, it's a case of weighing off what's coming down the line and trying to position myself so the pain in minimised.
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    Paul McGrath
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    Well then for anyone feeling either overawed or undersered by the O'Reilly/O'Brien press this the take of Socialist Voice, the monthly paper of the Communist Party of Ireland

    THE Government has finally put a figure on the cuts to be made in public spending and the Tnew taxes to be imposed in the budget due on 7 December. The European Union has dotted
    all the i’s and crossed all the t’s in the forthcoming budget and the future budgetary strategy
    of any Irish Governments for the next four years.
    The Government intends to take €6
    billion out of the economy through tax
    increases and cuts in public spending.
    This will be made up of €4½ billion in
    cuts in public spending and €1½ billion
    in increased taxes, to be followed by €3
    to 4 billion in 2012, €3 to 3½ billion in
    2013, and €2 to 2½ billion in 2014.
    This will result in a decit in 2011
    of 9¼ to 9½ per cent. This year’s decit
    is 32 per cent, after the €30 billion
    bank bail-out. The ratio of debt to GDP
    in 2011 could be 21 per cent higher
    than previously projected, because of
    the bail-out of the banks.
    It is estimated that debt will reach
    105 per cent of GDP (compared with 25
    per cent before the crisis), and that
    Ireland’s total nancing needs in 2010
    (maturing debt and its current budget
    decit) will be the equivalent of 38 per
    cent of GDP. Ireland is paying more for
    borrowing, at 7.67 per cent, compared
    with Germany at 5.21 per cent.
    The Government is attempting to
    shift the blame and promote the necessity
    for savage cuts and attacks on
    working people. Yet the joint head of
    xed income at Matrix Corporate Capital,
    Bill Blain, stated in the Financial
    Times: “The big problem in Ireland is
    the banking problem, with the
    expected cost of the bail-out of the
    nancial sector rising by the day.”
    We can’t feed our children and
    feed the greed of corporate
    banks
    The problem is not the borrowing
    by the Government to meet spending
    and investment but the billions being
    borrowed and the interest accruing on
    that borrowing to bail out the banks
    and so to pay back the debts to German
    and French banks, from which the
    Irish banks borrowed for speculative
    purposes in the rst place.
    They have created a revolving door,
    with the state borrowing from French
    and German banks, then handing those
    borrowings over to Irish banks, which
    then hand it back to the very same
    banks to pay o previous debts.
    Meanwhile working people face
    massive cuts in social welfare benets
    and pensions, increased direct and indirect
    taxes, and savage cuts in health,
    education, and other public services.
    In the wings Colm McCarthy waits
    with his report, ready to have a re
    sale of state companies to global nancial
    sharks, venture capitalists, and
    asset-strippers.
    This is an unprecedented transfer of
    wealth from working people, family
    farmers, small businesses, the selfemployed,
    the sick, the old and children
    to corporate nance capital.
    The amount of cuts and new taxes is
    twice the €3 billion envisaged at the
    time of last year’s budget. It also
    reects the fact that growth in GDP at
    the most optimistic will be 1.75 per
    cent next year, compared with a forecast
    of 3.3 per cent last December.
    Over the next four budgets the
    European Commission, the European
    Central Bank and international
    houses are demanding cuts of at least
    €15 billion, to bring the decit below 3
    per cent, the limit set for the euro zone
    under the Maastricht Treaty. The scale
    of the adjustment and the cost of the
    related bank bail-outs may well force a
    sovereign bond default.
    The strategy is to circumvent the
    wishes of the people, no matter what
    combination of establishment parties
    makes up the next Government.
    This is a clear case of corporate
    bankers subverting democracy, exposing
    the shallow nature of what they call
    “western democracies.” As James
    Connolly put it so well, the government
    “is but a committee for managing
    the common aairs of the whole
    bourgeoisie.”
    On Saturday 30 October the
    hundreds who turned up but could not
    get into Liberty Hall for a book launch
    are a clear sign that growing numbers
    of our people are losing faith in the
    establishment’s political process and in
    organisations and parties that claim to
    represent them.
    Sadly, there is growing disillusionment
    also with the leadership of the
    trade union movement, which has
    patently failed to defend its own
    members, while some have openly
    colluded with the establishment.
    That anger must not be corralled or
    led into the swamp of parliamentary
    politics, nor dampened by bombastic
    and vacuous speeches in a castrated
    national parliament.
    As the CPI pointed out in its statement
    on the mass mobilisation of
    students and the state’s use of violence
    against them, “this violence from the
    state must be met with renewed mobilisations,
    not just of students but
    workers, social-welfare recipients,
    family businesses, the self-employed–
    of all working people, whose living
    standards are under attack in the
    state’s attempt to save the ultra-rich
    from the consequences of their actions.
    “It is incumbent on the ICTU to
    make sure that its demonstration on 27
    November matches the determination
    and mobilisation that Irish students
    have shown today.”
    It’s their debt, not ours. The call
    must be made loud and clear: Repudiate
    their debt!

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    Quote Originally Posted by oleguer presas i renom View Post
    How about:
    ~ renationalising - that is, without compensation - all the companies (Eircom, Aer Lingus, Aer Rianta, et al) that have been privatised/partially privatised in the last 15 years. This would provide the state with the means to alleviate many of our most pressing problems - unemployment not being least of them.
    No it wouldn’t. Those companies have to exist in a free market and that’s not going to change. The added labour costs would drive them out of business- putting the people they do currently employ on the dole and losing their tax take. Eircom is already crippled with over employment making them among the least efficient incumbent operators in the Western World – where else do you still have no option but to pay line rental for a phone in your house?

    Quote Originally Posted by oleguer presas i renom View Post

    ~ a retrospective tax on all the multi-nationals (Intel, Hewlett Packard, et al) who have made BILLIONS on the backs of Irish workers, only to send the profits elsewhere and royally f*** their workforce as soon as things began to look a bit iffy. This would be eminently fairer than taking money away from the sick, elderly, and young, which is what we are doing now, and what both the EU and IMF would insist we continue to do.
    Problem there is the enormous risk that a great deal of multinationals would up and leave. The IDA sector is the only revenue generating part of our economy still working anywhere near the way it did 5 years ago – it’s them paying for the sick, elderly and young as it is. We’re on life support and you want to cut off the electricity? Great idea. And relative to the number of people Intel and HP have hired over the last 15-20 years, they’ve had very few enforced redundancies. There is also the huge benefit those working for them have contributed to the Irish economy and continue to do so. Somebody has to pay for this country to function and bar the money we’re borrowing and VAT, it’s only the tax on the wages of those employed by multinationals that makes a significant net contribution to the country’s coffers these days (construction is all but dead and the state has to pay public sector wages in the first place before taking half of it back).

    Quote Originally Posted by oleguer presas i renom View Post
    ~ expropriating every last vestige of wealth held in the state by the O'Reillys, Desmonds, Kellys, O'Briens, Dunnes, and all the other gombeen men who without the slightest brain or brawn have drained the country of its riches for the past three decades.
    Firstly, whatever you think of them, the Dunnes don’t belong in that list. They live here, pay their taxes here and have never gone running to the Government looking for taxpayer’s money. Their business practices and treatment of employees certainly aren’t exemplary but aren’t untypical of the retail trade anywhere.

    As for the rest, good luck with trying to make them pay. Most of them don’t live here and neither does their money. They ought to be treated as exiles and have their passports removed but it’d only be a token gesture – it won’t raise any significant sums of money.

    To return to Billy’s original question – the honest answer is that only time will tell. I suspect we’re gone past the point of no return and that a bailout is now inevitable. This Government has, whether intentionally or not, misrepresented the cost of the Anglo, NAMA and the Bank Guarantee schemes to such a degree that they have no credibility internationally – put simply the bond markets don’t trust our Government’s word and see lending money to Ireland as high risk for which they’re demanding a high return. We simply cannot carry on borrowing large sums at nigh on 10% interest when the most optimistic forecasts for economic growth over the same period envisage a 5% growth in the economy. Simple economics decree something must give and it could as soon as this week.

    As to what that will mean is similarly clouded. Two months ago I’ve had said a bailout in any shape or form would be disastrous. Now, given that we can’t borrow any more money anyway, it’s largely academic whether we get bailed out or not – we’re in for savage cutbacks regardless. If it’s going to happen probably best it’s happens sooner rather than later – uncertainty only makes matters worse and if investors knew the EU or IMF were behind our plan they’d be less jumpy about lending us money. I never wanted sh1tehawks like that involved in making decisions in our economy but quite literally beggars can’t be choosers. They’ll lend us money on their terms and that will mean a monetarist rather than social agenda will dominate. Expect carnage.

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    Martin Russell
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    Not going to quote anyone as this is looking like a long thread as it is!

    In my opinion and in Short remember-

    Firstly the Bank Bail Out was heralded by all in Europe as the correct thing to do, we were patted on the back for being the first country to do this at the time and indeed most analysts and the bond markets reacted very positively to this decision at the time.

    The problem is that none of these people* have to pay for the bail out/guarantee scheme (*yet!!)

    I hate to say it, but it’s a vicious circle.

    In short


    Bondholders wont lend to us unless they know they will get it back, the problem is the other more stable countries have had an increase in cost of bonds, so obviously we are more risky and Bondholders will want a better return for this risk.

    Bail outs are inevitable- in my “free market” opinion I would have let AIB/Anglo hit the wall and put our eggs into PTSB & BOI as the future to the country. In any other business AIB & Anglo would have been let fail and other (possibly foreign) banks would move in to fill the void- it’s the crux of a free economy.

    ECB are as culpable as anyone, they recommended and approved the bank guarantee scheme (and in turn the bail out) and are now preaching to us about getting it wrong- we will need their money soon though!

    IMF- no role to play here as of yet

    Bank Crisis- been done to death, let the worst ones fail (Anglo, AIB & IN) and assist the others- but its easy to say in hindsight, it seems even the banks didn’t know how bad their loan book was

    By the way- I know the cost of letting the banks crash would be burning bond holders, but this would have been short term- at the end of the day, these people are driven by money and if they see value in a bond then they will buy. (say 18 months of +3% on our bonds would have cost us approx €4-6 billion in extra interest rates)

    Job Losses or pay cuts- there is one cake and only so many slices. We spend approx 20 billion on public service wages- it has to come down.

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    YOu seem to be forgetting that amongst those bondholders are all the major Irish banks...

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    From reading about it and from what I can understand the European Central Bank seem to be the lesser of two evils. If the IMF comes in believe me its going to be a slash and burn policy,the whole fucking country will be screwed in terms of job losses,spiralling debt and cut back in front line services not to mention they will pull us out of the Euro and your savings will be devalued. ECB comes in, we will I believe pay back at a lower rate of interest and stay in the Euro, job losses wont be as severe and as we stay in the Euro believe me you will get a lot more bang for your buck.

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    Martin Russell
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    That's a fairly polar response to either scenario Chutney. The ECB's clout will be defined by what exactly they are bailing out. Even the Brits offered us 10billion. You can see it as a FF spin or reality more money is needed, whether it's a face saving exercise or genuine fiscal plan not to be seen to want a bailout, the simple fact remains that we need more money. Here's a different take on it

    http://www.businessinsider.com/heres...+(ClusterStock

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    Quote Originally Posted by thebtheithegthegthey View Post
    That's a fairly polar response to either scenario Chutney. The ECB's clout will be defined by what exactly they are bailing out. Even the Brits offered us 10billion. You can see it as a FF spin or reality more money is needed, whether it's a face saving exercise or genuine fiscal plan not to be seen to want a bailout, the simple fact remains that we need more money. Here's a different take on it

    http://www.businessinsider.com/heres...+(ClusterStock
    Honestly believe talk of taking this opportunity to raise our Corporation Tax to the same level as most of the EU is well wide of the mark. Yes, it is a long held ambition of Germany and France. However the primary reason for this intervention is to prevent a further flight of capital from Ireland that might trigger a wholesale collapse of our banking system and in turn threaten the stability and even the very existence of the Euro. EU leaders are desperate to avoid that so I really can't see our Corporation Tax being on the agenda at this stage.

    In saying that if we are forced into harmonisation with the EU, last out of the country switch off the lights, okay?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thebtheithegthegthey View Post
    That's a fairly polar response to either scenario Chutney. The ECB's clout will be defined by what exactly they are bailing out. Even the Brits offered us 10billion. You can see it as a FF spin or reality more money is needed, whether it's a face saving exercise or genuine fiscal plan not to be seen to want a bailout, the simple fact remains that we need more money. Here's a different take on it

    http://www.businessinsider.com/heres...+(ClusterStock

    I'll be honest mate thats the way I understand it! (Im open to correction) but as far as I am aware from what I can understand is that the ECB is the lesser of two evils.!

    Gaz is there any chance we may leave the Euro if the IMF become involved ? Surely ECB would do all in their power to help us out in order to ensure survival for the EU?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    YOu seem to be forgetting that amongst those bondholders are all the major Irish banks...
    AIB and BOI between them hold about 6 Billion Euro worth of Irish Government bonds. Which is scandalous as they used our money to buy them. However that isn't a huge amount relative to our total indebtedness to bondholders (given that 'we' now have the dubious honour of owning Anglo and NAMA and partially own BOI and will soon own AIB). It's a fair point you raise but isn't the crux of the problem here, which is that we are in any man's language bankrupt.

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    Martin Russell
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    I genuinely believe that the bail out, if it occurs, which according to reports is 90% going to happen will have a sh*t load of T&Cs with it (rightly so). I think the term "bailout" will be a bailout in all but name. FF will want to put another spin on it. Regarding the stability of the EURO, Cameron stated one of the pitfalls of the Euro was that there was no exit strategy offered. I reckon Germany, France and the rest would rather f*ck us out then see it's currency collapse. It's prop up or drop out. I agree with the main motivation for the bailout you put forward but this is the ideal time to play the Corporation Tax card also I believe.

    On a side note relations between Ireland and Spain/Portugal particularly the latter will take a while to repair.
    Last edited by BiggyRotten; 16th November 2010 at 12:50 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    It's a fair point you raise but isn't the crux of the problem here, which is that we are in any man's language bankrupt.
    I was suggesting so. I was just adding to Caolan's point about banks and bondholders. Scandalous doesn't even do it justice

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    Quote Originally Posted by chutneybear View Post

    Gaz is there any chance we may leave the Euro if the IMF become involved ? Surely ECB would do all in their power to help us out in order to ensure survival for the EU?
    I think Eurozone ego will mean the IMF will play no more than a supporting role in any bailout, if they play any at all. When the EU bailed out Greece earlier this year a bailout mechanism was agreed which envisaged only a minor role for the IMF. All the current efforts are aimed at saving the Euro with all its 16 members intact - they don't really want kicking anyone out of it.

    In saying that if we still had the punt we almost certainly wouldn't be in this big a mess as we could have raised interest rates to curb our huge inflation in the last decade. Instead we had record growth at a time of record low interest rates which were the last thing we needed - we handed our safety valve to stop the economy overheating over to Brussels when we joined the Euro. Furthermore we could have just printed more punts (as Bertie did in 93) to devalue the punt relative to other currencies which whilst risky would have worked out better overall IMO.
    Last edited by Gaz; 16th November 2010 at 12:55 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thebtheithegthegthey View Post
    I reckon Germany, France and the rest would rather f*ck us out then see it's currency collapse. It's prop up or drop out. I agree with the main motivation for the bailout you put forward but this is the ideal time to play the Corporation Tax card also I believe.
    Look, I'm not ruling it out. In EU terms, we're very dispensible and don't matter in the grand scheme of things. It's Spain they're worried about as they couldn't afford to bail them out - if the sentiment were to emerge that making an example of Ireland would force Spain to get its house in order they might screw us royally.

    However, I think what happened with Greece might have handed us an unforeseen and very fortuitous ace in any negotiations. As referred to above, a mechanism was thrashed together for bailing out member states in trouble. This expires in 2013. However Germany wants a permanent arrangement which its constitutional court can endorse. In fairness it makes good sense and would be good for EU Citizens - they want all banks properly monitored and would demand a large input from the banking sector itself in the event of bailouts or bank failures (cos Gerry is getting a pain in his hole putting his hand in his pocket to cover these cowboys). Believe it or not, all this has put the Lisbon Treaty back on the agenda as the German plan would have to be written into it. If it has to be changed it will have to be ratified again by a referendum here (though Cameron is threatening one in the UK too). If that happens, Germany would need the Irish public onside as they can't kick us out of the EU unless we choose to go ourselves. Fcuking us over by enforcing a hike in our corporation tax wouldn't be the way to go about that.

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    Have to say I was one of the main contributors to the old thread but I genuinely could not give a fuck any more.

    One thing I will say tho is if ANYONE thinks socialism is the way out of this they want locking up. Last thing we need is the state taking a bigger hand in our affairs.

    When Politicians, Government departments, The health service, Bank regulators, County council planning departments, Civil servants, and a whole host or other state origins fucked up the way they did why the fuck would we want more.

    As for the big mulit nationals who STILL bring in billions to the state we'd be facing an even bleaker future without them. Ask anyone who works for them if they are a "Shower of cunts". You jack up corporation tax and they will leave taking thousands of well paid jobs with them.

    We have the most incompetent Politicians in Europe and people through socialism want to give them more power. Fucking Crazy.

    No wonder Obama got creamed at the polls with his big government policies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlanMc View Post
    One thing I will say tho is if ANYONE thinks socialism is the way out of this they want locking up. Last thing we need is the state taking a bigger hand in our affairs.
    And who do you think will take over? business men? LOL. its just politicians from abroad



    We have the most incompetent Politicians in Europe and people through socialism want to give them more power. Fucking Crazy
    I think you'll find that most socialists want to get rid of the incompetent politicians we have. You know, the ones who hate socialists and love big business

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    [QUOTE=Dodge;16193]
    And who do you think will take over? business men? LOL. its just politicians from abroad

    Once they are not ours I'm happy enough. Least the Germans can actually manage an economy.


    I think you'll find that most socialists want to get rid of the incompetent politicians we have. You know, the ones who hate socialists and love big business
    So Let socialists run the country? Who has the credentials? Joan Burton? I wouldn't let her near the till in my local chipper!

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlanMc View Post
    So Let socialists run the country? Who has the credentials? Joan Burton? I wouldn't let her near the till in my local chipper!
    I dunno man, as much as I dislike Joan Burton, I really wouldn't mind seening Labour in Government. Probably won't happen though

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    Quote Originally Posted by antomorro View Post
    I dunno man, as much as I dislike Joan Burton, I really wouldn't mind seening Labour in Government. Probably won't happen though
    No matter who gets in anto they will need outside help to solve this now.

    3 weeks ago they got briefed by the dept of finance. Fine gael knocked a strategy together based on it. Burton said she wasn't told enough to go further. Give us a break. 3 years in and they are still blowing in the wind. Just listen to her interviews.

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    Probably a good idea to stay living over here by the sounds of things

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlanMc View Post
    No matter who gets in anto they will need outside help to solve this now.

    3 weeks ago they got briefed by the dept of finance. Fine gael knocked a strategy together based on it. Burton said she wasn't told enough to go further. Give us a break. 3 years in and they are still blowing in the wind. Just listen to her interviews.
    Aye, she always sounds clueless when she's on tele and what not.

    Country's FCUKED

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    Did I imagine it or did Noonan basically say everyone in Ireland was fearful for their money in Irish bank accounts on six-one yesterday evening?



    Yessss........fear leads to the dark side....

  29. #29
    Martin Russell
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    By the way the Good Friday...sorry, the Croke Park agreement will be out the window if we take the "bank bail out"

  30. #30
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    Not neccesarily.

    The EMSF type deals would only hurt if we strayed from existing paths. The IMF isn't really involved with that.

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