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Thread: The Road to Cheltenham: National Hunt Season 2010/11

  1. #31
    John McDonnell
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    burton port is the horse you would want to be backing

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    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donohoe'd and Dusted View Post
    burton port is the horse you would want to be backing
    In what?£&:;/

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donohoe'd and Dusted View Post
    burton port is the horse you would want to be backing
    Decent, brave horse but would be astonished if he won the King George. Stamina is his forte, Kempton's all about speed.

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    By the way I'm taking it as read that Kauto is going to take all the beating around Kempton. Thought he looked vulnerable to improving horses I when I saw him race up at Down Royal last month but having seen the contenders since it's difficult to see what's going to beat him. Kempton is his favourite track - he's won all four of his runs there (the last four King Georges) and nothing finished within 8 lengths of him in those wins.

    Absolutely cracking rescheduled card on at Fairyhouse on Saturday if it survives the weather. Hurricane Fly going against Solwhit in the Hatton's Grace and Mikael D'Haguenet making his debut over fences (well outside of France anyway). If it's on and the weather's even half decent I'll be there.
    Last edited by Gaz; 8th December 2010 at 11:01 AM.

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    Things we learnt from this weekend's International Meeting:

    - Don't oppose Time For Rupert at this track come March. He's a rock solid jumper and coasted through his race today - will be very hard to beat in the RSA.
    - Menorah is definitely a potential Champion Hurdle winner no matter what else turns up.
    - Cue Card is good but isn't a Champion Hurdle contender at least for now. Supreme Novices looks at his mercy but that could change between now and then.
    - Master Minded may very well be back to his best. If so, nothing will beat him in the Champion Chase at the Festival.
    - Zaynar now officially has a hell of a lot to prove. No excuses today and he didn't even place.

  6. #36
    arbour
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    Twist magic suffered a fatal injury today.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by arbour View Post
    Twist magic suffered a fatal injury today.
    Yeah sad news. Was looking good to win the Peterborough Chase too. Quirky as hell but a talented horse nonetheless.

    Mikael D'Haguenet fell down at Fairyhouse too on his chasing debut (lost me balls on him) but thankfully he lives to fight another day.
    Hurricane Fly came through to nab a superb victory over Solwhit in the Hattons Grace.
    Zaidpour took the piss in the Royal Bond and now looks a serious challenger to Cue Card for the Supreme Novices at the Festival when that race looked all but won just a few days ago.
    Golden Silver won as easily as expected and Tranquil Sea beat a decent field to take the John Durkan moved from Punchestown.
    Cracking day's racing (if an expensive one for me!), raging I missed it.

  8. #38
    arbour
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    ............................
    Last edited by arbour; 15th December 2010 at 05:50 PM.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by arbour View Post
    ............................
    Wasn't that the last transmission from the Titanic?

  10. #40
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    Rescheduled King George and Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Will Kauto win? Probably. Is 4/6 value? Not for me. I already backed Long Run antepost ages ago which frankly I'd wish I hadn't now - for me Nacarat offers the each way value here.

    A more intriguing affair is the Christmas Hurdle. Binocular is favourite but his season's target is definitely the Champion Hurdle so may not be in peak condition for this. Henderson is concerned the tacky ground may not let him get into a jumping rhythm and I'd share that view. I've fancied Starluck for this race for ages but I'm worried the ground might be that bit too soft for him now - it's a big enough of a negative for me to avert the large win stake I'd planned o him had the ground turned up better. With 8 runners I'm going to take a punt on Paul Nicholls Escort'men (9/1) to take a step up and at least place.

    My NAP of the day would have to be Donna's Palm in the Limestone Lad Hurdle (1.05) at Naas. He was disappointing LTO at Fairyhouse but if he can bounce back to his normal level of performance he should be able to see off these. The Meade yard is going well and unlike all here bar his inconsistent stablemate Aitmatov, he had a break over Christmas so comes in fresh. If he runs his race he ought to win so I'll happily take the 13/8 about him. I'll probably also chance doubling him up with Nadiya De La Vega (8/11) in the 12.20 at Kempton who gets a large mare's allowance and probably looks the best horse in the race anyway.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post

    My NAP of the day would have to be Donna's Palm in the Limestone Lad Hurdle (1.05) at Naas. He was disappointing LTO at Fairyhouse but if he can bounce back to his normal level of performance he should be able to see off these. The Meade yard is going well and unlike all here bar his inconsistent stablemate Aitmatov, he had a break over Christmas so comes in fresh. If he runs his race he ought to win so I'll happily take the 13/8 about him. .
    Carberry gave him terrible ride imo. Stayed near rear for the whole race then after last fence gave him a few whips and he shot up to finish second. needed to make a move at second last fence.had loads left in the tank it seemed. disappointing

  12. #42
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    Typical carberry ride

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace View Post
    Carberry gave him terrible ride imo. Stayed near rear for the whole race then after last fence gave him a few whips and he shot up to finish second. needed to make a move at second last fence.had loads left in the tank it seemed. disappointing
    Couldn't agree more. He may not have got to Shinrock Paddy but Carberry never gave him a chance. Pretty disgusted with him. And as Saintly says that's hardly the first time he's lost races trying to luck like a flash fecker.

  14. #44
    John McDonnell
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    Just had a good tip for ascot on saturday. Paul nicholls horse PLENTY POCKETS, the horse wont be out of the top 2 is what im told. Good source

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    Quote Originally Posted by Donohoe'd and Dusted View Post
    Just had a good tip for ascot on saturday. Paul nicholls horse PLENTY POCKETS, the horse wont be out of the top 2 is what im told. Good source
    Cheers and I'll take a look. But worth bearing in mind the stable has been out of form since the turn of the year - his horses ran like dogs last Saturday. Every horse in the yard got their jabs in the first week of the year and that can cause bug-like symptoms in some horses.

  16. #46
    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/ca...ate=2011-01-22

    1:15

    Ascot Annual Badgeholders´ Juvenile Hurdle (CLASS 3)(4yo) 12 runners 2m Soft ATR

    Race Conditions: £7,000 guaranteed For 4yo, which have not won more than three hurdles Weights 10st 12lb Penalties a winner of a Class 4 or 5 hurdle 6lb; of 2 hurdles, or of a Class 1 to 3 hurdle 10lb Allowances fillies 7lb Entries 12 pay £ 35
    NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
    1 31-521 Grandouet 24 4 11-8 Nicky Henderson75 145 129 144
    2 211237 Two Kisses 70 4 11-1 Brendan Powell60 Aidan Coleman 123 101 121
    3 Head Hunted 105F 4 10-12 Charlie Mann33 — — —
    4 84 L´Eminence Grise 24 4 10-12 Nick Williams80 — 33 116
    5 67 Looks Like Slim 16 4 10-12 Ben De Haan — 101 116
    6 Magic Prospect 218F 4 10-12 Charlie Mann33 — — —
    7 Ostentation 85F 4 10-12 Roger Teal Colin Bolger — — —
    8 Plenty Pocket 138F 4 10-12 Paul Nicholls70 — — —
    9 7 Sea Change 14 4 10-12 David Pipe50 — — 39
    10 Singapore Storm 4 10-12 Tom George56 — — —
    11 P Whitby Jack 14 4 10-12 Gary Moore25 — — —
    12 Truly Magic 102F 4 10-5 P T Brookshaw — — —

  17. #47
    John McDonnell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    Cheers and I'll take a look. But worth bearing in mind the stable has been out of form since the turn of the year - his horses ran like dogs last Saturday. Every horse in the yard got their jabs in the first week of the year and that can cause bug-like symptoms in some horses.
    supposedly pissing all over brampour in the gallops and paul thinks the world of brampour..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Donohoe'd and Dusted View Post
    supposedly pissing all over brampour in the gallops and paul thinks the world of brampour..
    Brampour finished third in a race he was expected to walk (and in which he had a price to match) last Saturday. I'm sure the horse is talented but unless it's at a price I can back each way or the opposition is very weak I won't be getting involved.

  19. #49
    John McDonnell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    Brampour finished third in a race he was expected to walk (and in which he had a price to match) last Saturday. I'm sure the horse is talented but unless it's at a price I can back each way or the opposition is very weak I won't be getting involved.
    up to urself mate. Just taught id pass it on

  20. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donohoe'd and Dusted View Post
    up to urself mate. Just taught id pass it on
    Oh absolutely always pass on informed word and let us make our own minds up! Nicholls does a column on Betfair on Fridays, I'll post up what he says about this one before the race.

  21. #51
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    He has been getting his article arse over tits lately. Kauto had been diagnosed as having an infection in the king george.

  22. #52
    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaz View Post
    Oh absolutely always pass on informed word and let us make our own minds up! Nicholls does a column on Betfair on Fridays, I'll post up what he says about this one before the race.
    Plenty Pocket makes his debut for us in the colours of the Timeform Betfair Racing Club in the juvenile hurdle, so let's hope he gives a good account of himself on his hurdling bow.
    He is actually owned 50-50 by Clive Smith and the Club, as Clive recently became their patron.
    We bought Plenty Pocket out of the Elie Lellouche stable, out of which horses such as Binocular and American Trilogy were purchased.
    He won over 1m4f at Saint Cloud and finished third at Craon on his final start in September, so he has decent middle distance form in France.
    He was gelded after he came to us and has improved greatly physically since, and goes great in all his work and jumps nicely - hopefully, you will have seen some of the videos of him working and schooling that we have posted on the site.
    So while we are clearly hopeful of a good run, he will undoubtedly improve massively physically and mentally for the run, as he needs experience.
    Not giving away much.

  23. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimdagym View Post
    Not giving away much.
    Didn't sound confident and it was justified - finished a distant 8th after travelling much too keenly.

    Was fairly nailed into Carole's Legacy there, couldn't see her being beaten but the winner deserved it.

  24. #54
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    Had a look through the Cheltenham antepost markets in the hunt for a few bargain prices. There are a few things you always need to bear in mind when backing antepost at the Festival:
    - The ground at Cheltenham will generally come up Good to Soft or better. So don’t back a horse that needs soft or heavy ground as they’re unlikely to get it. A lot of Good Irish-trained horses come into this category.
    - Be wary of horses that have more than one likely target. This is a particular problem this year due to the (unnecessary IMO) introduction of the new 2 and a half mile Jewson Novice Chase. In the past it was fairly obvious whether a Novice Chaser was being aimed at the Arkle (2 miles) or RSA (3 miles). This ‘halfway house’ not only weakens those two races it brings a lot of uncertainty into which race novice chasers will race in.
    - As the weights allocated in handicaps are so vital there’s little point betting on these until they are issued so they aren’t an antepost proposition at this time.
    - Remember of course that under normal antepost rules if your horse doesn’t run you don’t get your stake back. That’s the risk to balance the reward of much better prices than you’re likely to get on the day. Most bookies only go ‘no run, no bet’ (ie if the horse is a non-runner, you get your stake refunded) about 2 weeks before the Festival but Ladbrokes are already gone ‘no run, no bet’ on the feature races of each of the four days (Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase, World Hurdle and Gold Cup). Their prices are a little shorter than most competitors for most selections but in fairness to them they are removing the biggest element of risk from an antepost bet.
    - Betting antepost only makes sense if the price on your selection is likely to shorten before the day itself. No point taking the risk of it being a non-runner for no reward.

    Right, health warnings aside, the following struck me as overpriced. I’ll be backing these myself and I’m not advising you back them just because I am. However I’d recommend you analyse the races yourself and ask yourself if you think my opinions stand up to scrutiny. If so, you might bag yourself a bargain. Remember that only two outright favourites won at the Festival last year and the average price of a winner of was more than 13/1 and most of them were available at longer odds antepost.
    By the way I’d be on all these each way (or win/place on the Exchanges)

    Champion Hurdle – Khyber Kim
    33/1 with William Hill, 7.0 on Place Market on Betfair
    Binocular’s fantastic return to form in last year’s Champion Hurdle was the only time anything got the better of Khyber Kim in his four major races last season in what was a hugely competitive 2 mile hurdling division. He won the Greatwood and International Hurdle at Cheltenham before following up his Champion Hurdle second by winning the Aintree Hurdle. Those are not the exploits of a bad horse. The flat sharp track at Kempton for last Saturday’s Christmas Hurdle was never likely to play to his strengths and he ran a well beaten fourth on his seasonal bow. He’s now been pushed out to 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle and despite its competitiveness that’s an insult to the horse and what he has achieved in the last 18 months, particularly at Cheltenham. By way of comparison the likes of Dunguib, Starluck and Oscar Whiskey are the same price or shorter despite having achieved less combined than he has. Even if winning the race is perhaps beyond the now 9 year old he has every chance of placing – it’s likely at least one of the market leaders will disappoint.

    RSA Chase – Chicago Grey
    33/1 with William Hill
    Gordon Elliott’s Chicago Grey went to Cheltenham three times in 8 weeks between last October and December. He won impressively first time up, fell when coming to lay down what looked like it would be a winning challenge at the Open meeting and then finished an eight length second to the hugely impressive Time For Rupert. I make him the second best 3 mile Novice Chaser of the season. Despite that, after finishing fifth over the Christmas at Leopardstown on unsuitably heavy ground, his price has hit 33/1. That’s far too big for a horse that loves Good ground and has Cheltenham experience – and one whose campaign screams that he’s been aimed at this race all year (there’s no talk of him running in the Jewson race). Granted it’ll be difficult to reverse form with Time For Rupert but if the ground were to come up Good that would be in his favour and possibly not Time For Rupert’s. However if Time For Rupert wins the Argento Chase next Saturday the temptation to run him in what looks an open renewal of the Gold Cup may prove too strong for connections to resist. That would leave Chicago Grey facing horses no better than him IMO off a huge price. The early bird may catch the worm of a double-carpet docket here.
    Edit - since posting this Gordon Elliott has revealed one of the handicaps at the Festival is Chicago Grey's intended target. Presumably that's to avoid Time For Rupert in the RSA but plans could change if TFR were to go for the Gold Cup. Personally I think he's making a big mistake (not just because I backed CG antepost!) as this is the only year in which he can run in Novice Chases and he's likely to find the going much tougher in handicaps.

    Gold Cup - Midnight Chase
    20/1 with Paddy Power
    Midnight Chase has been endlessly progressive this season and has done it all at Cheltenham over Gold Cup distances and further. He loves good to soft/good ground. He’s a handicapper and in any normal year it would be preposterous to suggest that a horse that has never won a Grade One could win a Gold Cup. However I believe this isn’t a normal year and even a cursory glance at the other competitors reveals negatives:
    - Imperial Commander (Best Price 7/2): With his Cheltenham record you’d have to make him the most likely winner of the race. However he has always needed to be at 100% to run his race and he’s had a niggling injury since winning the Betfair Chase. Also he’s 10 now and Cool Dawn was the only 10 year old in the last 17 runnings of the race to win at that age. Stats are only stats but there’s nearly always a reason behind them and in this case it’s simply age – neither Kauto nor Denman could overcome this last year and with all due respect to him, Imperial Commander was never in their class. Certainly the general 7/2 does not sound value to me.
    - Long Run (Best Price 7/1): After his King George win he looks the heir apparent to the staying chasing crown. I think he may get there given time but I’m not convinced that at this stage of his development he’s ready to master a stamina-sapping track like Cheltenham.
    - Denman (Best Price 8/1): Wasn’t good enough to win the last 2 years and there are no reasonable grounds for thinking that’s going to change. He’s 11 now and you have to go back to 1969 for the last time a horse older than 10 has won the Gold Cup.
    - Kauto Star (Best Price 9/1): Despite the talk of his poor show in the King George being down to an infection I’m firmly of the opinion that Kauto is a horse in decline. He’s another 11 year old who has to breach 40+ years of history. Cheltenham has never really been his ideal track anyway and it’d take a huge slice of luck for him to win now.
    - Diamond Harry (10/1): I was always a sceptic about this horse up until the Hennessy when he won in fine style. However that was a handicap in which he was in receipt of a welter of weight and at his favoured Newbury track – he has never looked so comfortable at Cheltenham. Would need to show a big improvement on his Cheltenham form to win this but he is at least seemingly on an upward curve unlike many of those above him in the market.
    - Pandorama: I love this horse but he needs soft ground to be at his best and is highly unlikely to get it. Add to that Noel Meade’s atrocious record at Cheltenham and he’s not one to be with here.
    - Pride Of Dulcote: The notion that he’s a serious contender here is based on his win at Newbury over Christmas. However none of us could see that race with the fog to judge whether it was a great run from him or a poor one from Punchestowns.
    - Punchestowns: Very nearly the best Grade One 3 mile hurdler around two seasons back, the penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with people that he’s nowhere near as good a chaser as his jumping of fences continues to negate the advantage his undoubtedly mighty engine ought to be giving him.
    So why not Midnight Chase each way I ask you?
    Last edited by Gaz; 26th January 2011 at 09:59 AM. Reason: Update on Chicago Grey's likely Festival target

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    Interesting horse made his racecourse debut for Donald McCain today. Storming Gale is the name and he won his Maiden Hurdle at Ffos Las. Got on him at 4.8 on Betfair this morning but when he drifted out beyond 7.0 I shied away from advising a punt on him as I took as an indication from connections that he probably wasn't ready. That obviously wasn't the case as he won pretty impressively so I'm more inclined to think they wanted to get a run into him in a low profile fixture ahead of Cheltenham. This is the way Peddlers Cross was campaigned last year ahead of his festival win and this fella, owned and trained by the same team as Peddlers Cross, is of a very similar profile - apparently he was recommended to them by the same people here in Ireland as put them on to PC. If this fella turns up at the Festival he looks like one to keep the right side of.
    Last edited by Gaz; 27th January 2011 at 05:50 PM.

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    Unbelievable scenes at newbury. Racing abandoned as two horses have died and others we're found with burn marks in their mouths. Reports say it was caused by electricity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by saintly View Post
    Unbelievable scenes at newbury. Racing abandoned as two horses have died and others we're found with burn marks in their mouths. Reports say it was caused by electricity.
    Yeah, faulty manes apparently.

    I shouldn't jest, was very sad. We also lost Money Trix and Glencove Marina in the Hennessy (was at this myself).

    Oscars Well looks a good Cheltenham prospect, Zaidpour found out off a strong gallop.

    For all that Mikael D'Haguenet was unlucky to be impeded by Quel Esprit, I thought his jumping was very sketchy. Wouldn't be backing him at Cheltenham especially given the likely improvement in the ground.

    Don't think I'll ever back another horse ridden by Paul Carberry. Cool Quest finished like a train the other day after Flash Dan stuck him out the back until 2 flights out. 'Stylist' me hole - I've lost count of the races I've seen him throw away through not making enough use of his horses.

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    Carberry is an absolute tool. I've tried to steer clear of him ever since he fucked up on psycho at the festival a few years ago.
    Very disappointed with zaidpour. Looked a real threat earlier in the season

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    Grand National weights released today. Reigning Champion Don't Push It gets top weight (11st 10 lbs) with Neptune Collonges - barring a setback Don't Push It will run which brings a degree of certainty to the weights that have been allocated. The antepost favourite is Donald McCain's Ballabriggs who has been alloted 11 stone. Over the last couple of years the nature of the race has changed - it used to be that carrying over 11st practically ruled you out but the first two home last year and the first four the year before all carried 11 stone or over. Ballabriggs is 14/1 which is a value antepost punt for me as he's a quick horse and likes Good ground which you'd expect he'll get at Aintree in early April.

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  31. #60
    Super Moderator Jimdagym's Avatar
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    PP gone non runner no bet so time to get your money on lads.

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