+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 9 of 9

Thread: FAI Cup 2014

  1. #1
    Patrons
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    2,523
    Thanks
    337
    Thanked 1,580 Times in 602 Posts

    FAI Cup 2014

    Been having a look at the FAI Cup Outright market with my Pats scarf off and my gambling hat on.

    2014 FAI Cup – Best Odds (2nd Round opponent in italics)
    Pats 4/1 (Ladbrokes) – Away to Pats CY
    Rovers 9/2 (Ladbrokes) – Away to Sheriff YC
    Cork 13/2 (Boylesports/Paddy Power) – Home to St Mochtas
    Dundalk 8/1 (Boylesports) – Home to Sligo
    Sligo 9/1 (Bet365) – Away to Dundalk
    Derry 12/1 (Bet365) – Away to Cobh
    Limerick 33/1 (Bet365) – Home to Bohs
    Bray 40/1 (Bet365) – Away to Wexford Youths
    Drogs 40/1 (Bet365) – Home to Cockhill Celtic
    Bohs 50/1 (Bet365) – Away to Limerick
    50/1 bar

    Obviously the prices reflect the difficulty of ties each team faces in this weekend’s Second Round ties.

    Starting with us, tonight should be straightforward but as a gambler you just couldn’t take 4/1 about any team with a Final record like ours to win the thing.

    To a degree the same could be said of Rovers – our wretched luck in the competition has taken attention off the fact that they haven’t won the Cup since leaving Milltown and have lost three finals in that time, all of which they fancied themselves to win. Added to that is the fact that they appear to lack quality beyond their first 11 which will probably become a bigger factor as the season wears on.

    Cork will get through this round without fuss but I’d expect that progress against the better fancied teams will hinge very much on them getting home advantage and winning first time out. The law of averages says they won’t keep getting draws like that. Even if they did make the Final I reckon they lack the big match experience to win it.

    There’s a very real possibility this year’s winners will come from tonight’s clash at Oriel. Sligo have established themselves as the Cup kings in recent years but will face as tough a task as they’ve ever had in this competition to survive beyond this round. Their away form in the league has been uncharacteristically poor (more losses than wins so far) and they took a fair tanking on the plastic pitch just a couple of weeks back. While it could be argued that the fact their season (domestically at least) probably hinges on tonight will be a motivating factor, it’s just as likely to heap pressure on them.

    As for Dundalk, it’s very hard to make a good case for opposing them right now. At this midpoint of the league they’ve definitely looked the best side so far and have won their last six league games by an aggregate score of 27-3. Obviously they’ve got a tougher task than the other leading contenders on paper but that’s been factored into the price – actually, over factored into the price IMO. They’re a shade of odds-on in most places to win tonight and should they do so they’ll probably be installed as favourites to win the competition outright. Unlike ourselves or to a lesser extent Rovers, they’ve no ‘Cup curse’ sitting on their backs and the experience of playing in this year’s Setanta Cup Final should stand to them were they to make the Aviva. There’s clearly a divergence of opinion among odds compilers on how to price them – Bet365 and Ladbrokes have them as short as 5/1, while Boylesports are sticking their necks out at 8/1. Obviously backing them now carries the live risk that your bet will be in the bin by 10 O’ Clock this evening but at 8/1 I think the potential reward (of getting 8/1 about the favourites) more than justifies the risk. They'd be my selection at the prices.

    Nobody beyond them makes much appeal to me at present. Were Mick Cooke to go back to Drogs as some have speculated he might, the 40/1 about them might be worth an each way shot given how well they performed in the Cups under him in his first spell there.

    Oh and anybody about to ascend their “I couldn’t bet against Pats because I love them more than you” high horse, save it for elsewhere. You’re in Gambloria now, this is strictly business.
    We are at war with Eurasia. We've always been at war with Eurasia.

  2. #2
    Administrator
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    11,340
    Thanks
    1,500
    Thanked 5,794 Times in 2,590 Posts
    Dundalk at 8/1 might be the bet of the year. Most bookies have Sligo at 15/2 and Dundalk at 8/1 despite Dundalk being favourites for the game tonight. Win that and they'll be 3/1 or less. Crazy odds
    "We've seen you come, we'll see you go"

  3. #3
    Administrator
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    11,340
    Thanks
    1,500
    Thanked 5,794 Times in 2,590 Posts
    Oh and the top 5 now will win every trophy on offer this year. Wouldn't back anyone else
    "We've seen you come, we'll see you go"

  4. #4
    John McDonnell
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,322
    Thanks
    270
    Thanked 983 Times in 436 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    Oh and the top 5 now will win every trophy on offer this year. Wouldn't back anyone else
    Agree, its been a long time since theres been such a massive gap in quality between the top few teams and the rest in the league

  5. #5
    Patrons
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    2,523
    Thanks
    337
    Thanked 1,580 Times in 602 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    Most bookies have Sligo at 15/2 and Dundalk at 8/1 despite Dundalk being favourites for the game tonight. Win that and they'll be 3/1 or less. Crazy odds
    Exactly. There's no logical correlation between the two markets, it's as if whoever priced up the Outright market doesn't realise Sligo would be about a 2/1 outsider just to survive this round.
    We are at war with Eurasia. We've always been at war with Eurasia.

  6. #6
    Patrons
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    3,693
    Thanks
    1,288
    Thanked 1,804 Times in 758 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dodge View Post
    Oh and the top 5 now will win every trophy on offer this year. Wouldn't back anyone else
    You can never rule Derry out of a Cup competition, any trip to the Brandywell in one of the later rounds would been seen as a no no for most
    And Brian Kerr is in tears.

  7. #7
    Jackie Hennessy
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,649
    Thanks
    329
    Thanked 649 Times in 292 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Rathfarnham_Saint View Post
    You can never rule Derry out of a Cup competition, any trip to the Brandywell in one of the later rounds would been seen as a no no for most
    Derry are even worse since Roddy was sacked

  8. #8
    Patrons
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    3,693
    Thanks
    1,288
    Thanked 1,804 Times in 758 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by decokh View Post
    Derry are even worse since Roddy was sacked
    They were shite in 2012. I'd take them at home but I wouldn't fancy a trip to the Brandywell
    And Brian Kerr is in tears.

  9. #9
    Administrator
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    11,340
    Thanks
    1,500
    Thanked 5,794 Times in 2,590 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Rathfarnham_Saint View Post
    They were shite in 2012. I'd take them at home but I wouldn't fancy a trip to the Brandywell
    They had picked up a bit of form towards the end of 2012 in fairness. I'm with you though, an away game in the Brandywell is one of the hardest trips left
    "We've seen you come, we'll see you go"

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts