Originally Posted by
Jimdagym
I didnt say it was a value bet Gaz, I said it was the stand out bet for me at the minute. I'm not a big fan of horseracing antepost at the best of times and at 7/2 for the festival I would normally stay clear. What I mean is that its the only one I am currently watching.
With regards his chances, well he has recently won his chase debut on the track, albeit over 2m4f. He lost to Big bucks in the world hurdle by less thaan 2 lengths and that was with 11-10 on his back (so did Bucks) and he won over 3m on the track in another hurdle in Jan. So track and trip will be no problem. The RSA is a gruelling race though, and Pipe doesnt exactly have form in it. But Grand Crus has enough going for it to be in with a shout. Barring any disasters this winter, I'd expect it to be thereabouts. Having said that, Grand crus has never won carrying more than 11-5 so 'd be watching the weights too. I wouldnt take your arguement about the ground at chelt. Although Grand crus has only won good to soft or good (afair) but the same arguement is true that most horses need a general type of ground. Part of your antepost bet is that the gound suits, and good or ggod to soft wouldnt be an unnatural ground for march. Its not like he needs glue to win.
The way I would treat this is if I saw him at a very short price in newbury this week or over christmas, I'd back him antepost instead, in that if he wins he'd be shortened for the festival anyway.
But he is grey anyway so fuck him...